城市轨道交通客流量预测的信度模型及其应用

The Credibility Models for Passenger Forecasting of Urban Rail Transport with Applications

信度估计是产生于风险管理和精算领域的一种现代预测方法.借助信度估计的技术和方法,对城市轨道交通客流量进行短期预测.为了考虑不同车站客流量间的相依关系,建立了轨道交通客流量的多维信度预测模型.并采用天津地铁一号线的数据,对所述预测方法进行验证.

Credibility estimating is one of the modern method for predicting which have been grounded in the field of risk management and actuarial science.In this paper,the short-term passenger flow of the urban rail transport are predicted by virtue of technologies or methods of credibility estimating.To account for the dependency between passenger flows of different stations,the Multidimensional credibility models for predicting passenger flow are established.Finally,an example is showed to illustrate the method by applying the data from subway line one in Tianjin.