应用德尔菲法建立进口食品中化学性危害物质风险分级指标体系

Establishment of risk classification index system of chemical hazards in imported food by Delphi method

目的构建进口食品中化学性危害物质风险分级指标体系,为我国进口食品风险管理提供技术支持。方法采用文献法和专家咨询法初步拟定16个风险分级指标,应用改进的德尔菲(Delphi)法将风险分级指标编制成问卷对专家进行咨询,对指标的重要性和可操作性进行评分。采用Excel 2010和SPSS 17.0软件计算指标权重。结果经过两轮德尔菲咨询,专家意见趋于一致,最终确定7个指标构建风险分级指标体系,其中一级指标2项为危害性、可能性;二级指标3项为毒理学急性毒性、毒理学长期毒性,进口食品中化学性危害物质不合格批次检出率;三级指标2项分别为大鼠经口LD_(50)和健康指导值或致癌性、致突变性、生殖发育毒性、神经毒性和慢性毒性等,权重分别为:0.52、0.48、0.37、0.30、0.33、0.54和0.46。结论筛选得到的7个指标对食品安全风险管理工作具有一定的借鉴意义。

Objective To establish a risk classification index system of chemical hazards for imported food,so as to provide technical supports for the risk management of imported food.Methods Preliminary framework and 16 indicators were formulated based on literature review and expert consensus.By the modified Delphi method,the risk classification indexes made into questionnaire and expert consultation were conducted.Indicators were scored according to their importance and feasibility.Weights of indicators were calculated by Excel 2010 and SPSS 17.0.Results After twice Delphi consultation,experts opinions tended to be uniform.The risk classification index system including 2 top level indicators（both severity and likelihood）,3 second level indicators（acute toxicity,long-term toxicity and detection rate of batches of hazardous chemical substance in unqualified imported food）,and 2 third level indicators（including rat oral median lethal dose（LD_（50）） and health-based guidance value or carcinogenicity,mutagenicity,reproductive toxicity,neurotoxicity,chronic toxicity,which expressed various toxicity category indicators） was established.Their weights were 0.52,0.48,0.37,0.30,0.33,0.54 and 0.46,respectively.Conclusion Seven indicators selected have a certain significance for risk management working of food safety.