财务信息可比性、产品市场竞争与分析师预测

Financial Information Comparability,Product Market Competition and Analysts' Forecast

选取针对沪、深两市A股上市公司2006—2013年度盈余发布的分析师预测样本,研究上市公司财务信息可比性对分析师跟踪数量和预测质量的影响。研究发现,上市公司的财务信息可比性越高,则对其进行跟踪预测的分析师数量越多,预测质量越高。当公司所在的产品市场竞争程度越高时,财务信息可比性与分析师跟踪数量及预测质量之间的正相关关系均更为显著。研究结果表明,可比性这一财务信息质量特征是影响分析师预测行为的重要因素,且产品市场竞争会增强二者之间的关系。

This paper investigates the effect of financial information comparability on analyst following and analyst forecast quality. It is found that firms with higher financial information comparability have a larger analyst following,less dispersion among individual analyst forecasts and more accurate analyst forecasts. Further study finds that when the degree of product market competition is higher,the positive relation between financial information comparability and analysts following is more significant,and the positive relation between financial information comparability and analyst forecast quality is also more significant. The results show that financial information comparability is an important factor of the analyst forecasts,and the product market competition can strengthen the relation between financial information comparability and analysts forecast.