并购溢价决策中的锚定效应研究

A Study on Anchoring Effects of Acquisition Premiums Decision

Kahneman(2003)在总结决策者的非理性特征时,发现除了过度自信外,还有一个重要的非理性特征——锚定效应。已有研究只考察了并购溢价决策中高管过度自信的非理性因素,尚未考察锚定效应的非理性因素。本文旨在考察并购溢价决策中的锚定效应。文章基于我国A股上市公司2004—2011年的并购事件样本,结果发现:并购溢价决策虽然受到理性因素的支配,但也存在一定程度的锚定效应。具体来说,如果决策情景中仅存在内在锚,不存在外在锚,那么并购溢价决策会呈现内在锚效应;如果决策情景中仅存在外在锚,不存在内在锚,那么并购溢价决策会呈现外在锚效应;如果决策情景中同时存在内在锚和外在锚,那么并购溢价决策中仍然会呈现出内在锚效应,但外在锚效应会减弱或消失。如果并购聘请了咨询顾问,那么并购溢价决策中的锚定效应会有所缓解。

Kahneman, the Winner of 2002 Nobel Prize for Economics, summarizes the non-rational factors of decision in overconfidence and anchoring effects. While the existing research only examines the non-rational factors of overconfidence, neglects the research on the anchoring effects in acquisition premiums. Therefore, the paper aims to examine the anchoring effects of acquisition premiums decision. Based on the data of acquisition events from 2004 to 2011, the paper finds that： although the acquisition premiums decisions are dominated by rational factors, there are anchoring effects in a certain degree. The details are follows： when the decision situation only exists the self-generated anchor, the acquisition premiums decision shows the self-generated anchor effects; when the decision situation only exists the experimenter-provlded anchor, the acquisition premiums decision shows the experimenter-provided anchor effects ; when the decision situation exist both the experimenter-provided anchor and experimenter-provided anchor, the self-generated anchor effects still exist, while the experimenter-provided anchor effects will be weakened or faded. The paper further finds that the consultant will weaken the anchor effects of acquisition premiums decision.