长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素

Chronic Multidimensional Poverty,Inequality and Causes of Poverty

本文利用Alkire&Foster(2011)多维贫困测度方法和Foster(2009)的持续时间分析法,构建了长期多维贫困与平均贫困持续时间指数,以CHNS数据为样本从静态和动态双重视角分析了我国的长期多维贫困程度,并通过多层回归模型探讨了致贫的宏微观因素。研究发现:长期多维贫困指数不仅能测度家庭贫困程度,还能反映贫困家庭平均贫困持续时间;相比城市家庭,农村家庭长期多维贫困发生率更高,但随着贫困持续时间的延长,城乡贫困家庭的平均被剥夺深度出现了明显的逆转,城市贫困家庭的贫困程度相对于农村更为严重;户籍制度能解释城乡家庭长期多维贫困发生率差异的43%,且能解释城乡贫困家庭的贫困不平等程度的17%;家庭的户主特征、社会关系、人口规模与结构、户籍制度等因素对长期多维贫困发生率及不平等有显著影响。

Using Alkire and Foster＇s multidimensional poverty measurement and Foster＇s duration method, this paper constructs the chronic multidimensional poverty index and average poverty duration index analyses Chin＇s chronic multidimensional poverty incidence from both static and dynamic perspectives, and explores macro and micro factors of causing poverty by multi-level regression model. The results show that chronic multidimensional index can not only measure household poverty incidence, hut also reflect the average duration of household poverty. The incidence of multidimensional poverty is higher in rural households than in urban households. However, as the .duration of poverty prolonged, the average deprivation deepness of poor households between urban and rural areas reverses obviously and urban household poverty incidence becomes severer. Household registration system （hukou） can account for 43% of difference of chronic multidimensional poverty incidence and 17% of difference of inequality of household poverty between urban and rural areas. The study shows that the incidence of chronic multidimensional poverty and its inequality are also affected significantly by factors including the characteristics of household head, social relation, population size of household and structure, household registration system. Finally, the paper offers several feasible suggestions for future poverty reduction strategy according to the China＇s situations.