中国的“物价—产出”关系再探讨及政策启示——基于菲利普斯曲线的修正研究

A Re-Exploration of the Relationship between “Price-Output” in China and Its Policy Implications: Based on the Modified Phillips Curve

本文基于相关经济理论引入"实际产出增长率缺口"、"经劳动生产率增长率调整后的货币工资增长率",并结合对"劳动生产率"、"货币工资"指标进行更规范的数据处理后研究发现,"实际产出缺口"、"名义增长缺口"对通胀率均有显著的正向解释力;"劳动生产率增长率"与"货币工资增长率"间的非同步调整会导致需求缺口与通胀率间的关系曲线发生移动。进一步研究还发现,潜在产出增长有利于缓解通胀压力;由于名义工资存在粘性,较快的劳动生产率增长利于缓解通胀压力;由于不同名义工资粘性存在差异,使用粘性更强的"城镇职工工资增长率"比使用"城乡就业人员加权工资增长率"更能显著提高对中国菲利普斯曲线的拟合精度。

This paper introduces the real output growth rate gap,and the money wages growth rate adjusted by the growth of labor productivity,on the basis of the relevant economic theories,and in combination with a more standardized data processing to labor productivity money wages. The study indicates that the real output gap the nominal growth gap have significant positive explanatory powers to inflation rate,and the asynchronous adjustment between the growth rates of labor productivity of money wages will change the original relationship between the demand gap the inflation rate. Further the study found that the faster potential output growth will help alleviate inflationary pressures; that the faster labor productivity growth will help alleviate inflationary pressures due to the presence of the nominal wage stickiness; and that using more stringy wage growth of urban workers can fit out China＇s Phillips Curve better than using the growth of weighted wage of employed persons in urban rural areas due to the presence of the differences of the different nominal wage stickiness.