1689—1692年陕西大旱灾情及气候背景

The extreme drought events in Shaanxi Province during 1689—1692

依据清代档案、方志和文集所记载的历史信息,针对1689—1692年(康熙二十八年至康熙三十一年)陕西大旱事件进行了详细剖析,复原和重建了旱情史实、发展过程和空间分异图景。长达4年大范围"民流田荒,残破至极"的旱灾情状,并伴生虫灾、低温和瘟疫流行等灾害,重灾区(1级)主要分布于陕西关中的西安府和凤翔府,灾情最严重的1690年,55个州县旱情表现为1级(大旱),2级(旱)灾情涉及20个州县。史料记载所反映的1689—1692年冷干事件,与太阳活动、ENSO事件、火山活动显示的气候"冷干"特征基本吻合,由此推断此次干旱是明清小冰期背景下的一次极端气候事件和重大气象灾害。通过辨识干旱事件与外部环境因子之间的关联度,可以看出历史旱灾有着复杂多样的影响因子,反映了历史时期气候变化研究中的不确定性和复杂性特征。

The drought influence of historical facts and space-time differentiation picture of extreme drought events happened in Shaanxi Province are restituted by means of historical literature records during 1689—1692（ 28- 31 years of Emperor Kangxi in Qing Dynasty）. In the course of four-year-drought event,large scale of famine and exile appeared,especially in the harder-hit areas there revealed dismal pictures of deserted crops and homeless people from the special differentiation characteristics showed by the developmental processes of each prefecture in Shaanxi province. In addition,the severe drought happened simultaneously with insect pest,extreme cold,plague and secondary disasters,which caused society and economy,suffering a range of losses（ e. g. houses collapsed,fields deserted,population casualties,river runoff overflowing etc.）. The worst-hit areas of drought influence are mainly distributed in the central Shaanxi plain; there are 55 prefecturesthat the extent of drought disaster in the first grade,and there are 20 prefectures that the extent of drought disaster in the second grade in 1690. From the angle of natural background,this paper indicates that it was an extreme drought event under the climate background of little ice age in Ming-Qing dynasties compared with the occurrence time of drought events with the natural record results of solar variation,ENSO events and volcanic activities. It shows that the reconstruction result on the basis of proxy data between historical documents and natural indicators are more or less in sync and there is uncertainty in the process of historical climate change.