中国经济中的一般利润率:1994-2011

The General Rate of Profit for China Economy: 1994-2011

利润率是马克思主义经济学分析经济运行的重要变量。本文在借鉴谢克等人建立的国民经济核算的政治经济学框架基础上,结合中国实际估算了1994-2011年的一般利润率。我们的研究发现,1994-2011年间中国经济一般利润率存在不断下降的趋势,进一步的分析表明,尽管剩余价值率和资本有机构成都具有上升趋势,但资本有机构成的上升趋势超过了剩余价值率的上升趋势是利润率下降的主要原因。资本有机构成的上升趋势直接源于中国经济重化工业占比的不断提高。

Rate of profit is the most important variable to analyze economy in Marxian political economy. This paper is based on Shaikh＇ s framework of national economic accounting for political economy, and combines with China＇ s reality to estimate the general rate of profit for China from 1994 to 2011. Our research finds there is a detrend for this rate of profit, and further analysis shows even though rate of surplus value and organic composition of capital are both increasing, the latter grows at a higher velocity, which is the main cause for the declining rate of profit. The fast expansion of heavy industry is the direct cause for rising organic composition of capital.