基于改进引力模型的中蒙俄双边贸易成本实证研究

The Empirical Research of Bilateral Trade Costs among China,Mongolia and Russia Based on the Improved Gravity Model

传统的引力模型方法在计算贸易成本时，通常认为贸易成本与地区距离和宏观经济形势相关，往往忽略了多边阻力对贸易成本的影响，而Novy（2006）在融入多边贸易壁垒对贸易成本影响的构想下提出了改进的引力模型，使得该模型更加科学合理。本文运用Novy（2006）改进的引力模型，测算了2000～2014年间中国与蒙古国、中国与俄罗斯的双边贸易成本的变化。测度结果表明，自2000年以后中国与蒙古国、俄罗斯双边贸易成本大幅下降。而在可贸易品份额为0．8，替代弹性为7时，2010年后中蒙双边贸易成本维持在0．47左右，中俄双边贸易成本维持在0．5左右。通过对比中蒙、中俄双边贸易成本，结果显示中国与蒙古国在贸易领域的相互开放程度要高于中国与俄罗斯。

For computing trade costs, the traditional Gravity model considered the macroeconomic situation and related areas distance, and often overlooked the multilateral resistance of trade costs. By absorb integration into the multilateral trade barriers on costs, Novy（2006） put forward an modified gravity model, and made the model more scientific and reasonable. This paper used the Novy modified gravity model to estimate the change in the cost of bilateral trade between China and Mongolia, China and Russia from 2000 to 2014. Empirical results showed that China and Mongolia, the Russian trade costs had declined effectively since 2000. When the tradable goods share was 0.8 and the elasticity of substitution was 7, the trade costs between China and Mongolia was around 0.47 after 2010, while the bilateral trade costs between Russia and Mongolia remained around 0.5. By contrasting bilateral trade costs between China and Mongolia, China and Russia, this paper showed the mutual openness between China and Mongolia in the field of trade than China and Russia.