我国财政收入与三次产业增加值计量关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Econometric Relationship Between China's Public Revenues and Products of the Three Industries

经济是财政收入的基础,财政收入大部分取自于三次产业增加值,一小部分取自于存量资产。财政收入实际价值受居民消费价格指数(CPI)变化的影响,存在缩水现象。作者运用计量经济学中的协整理论,选取全国1978-2014年5组时间序列,在财政收入与三次产业增加值及CPI之间建立一组线性回归模型,通过结构分析,并采用格兰杰因果关系检验,揭示后者与前者之间的数量和因果关系。研究发现,财政收入与第一产业增加值和CPI呈现负相关关系(即弹性为负),与第二、三产业增加值呈现正相关关系(即弹性为正);财政收入对GDP的综合弹性为1.44%;三次产业增加值的一期滞后对财政收入有影响,二期以上滞后没有影响,财政收入无论几期滞后均对三次产业增加值没有影响。

Economy is the basis of public revenue, the majority of which is derived from domestic products of the three industries, and a small amount comes from stock assets. The real value of public revenue will be deflated by the influence of CPI fluctuation. This paper, applying cointegration theory of econometrics, and selecting five sets of time series of the national level covering a period from years 1978 to 2014, has established a linear model with public revenues, products of the three industries and CPI as variables. Both quantitative and causal relation- ships have been revealed by methods of structural analysis and Granger causality test. It is turned out that public revenue is negative related to products of primary industry and CPI, i. e. , the elasticity is negative, at the same time, public revenue shows a positive correlation to the secondary and tertiary industry, i. e. , the elasticity is positive. It is also found that the integrated elasticity of public revenue to GDP comes up to 1.44%, and one lag of the three industries has some impact on public revenue, while lags exceeding two have no impact. In the other hand, no lags of public revenue exert impact on the products of the three industries.