集对分析法在露天采石场安全评价及预测中的应用

On the application of the set pair analysis method to the safety evaluation and prediction of the open rock quarry

针对我国露天采石场安全状况普遍较差、安全事故频发、而传统采石场安全评价方法存在不足的现状,分析了影响采石场安全状况的各种因素,建立了露天采石场的安全评价指标体系。该指标体系包含安全管理、安全生产、安全环境和安全教育4个方面,共19个安全评价指标。采用层次分析法求得各指标权重,并结合集对分析原理计算出集对联系度及集对势对露天采石场的安全状况进行评价和预测,从而克服了传统采石场安全评价方法在处理不确定性方面的不足。以武汉地区某露天采石场为例,用该评价体系从人、机、环、管4个方面对其安全现状进行了评价与预测。结果表明,将集对分析方法应用于露天采石场的安全评价和预测,计算简单,评价结果较可靠。

This paper is entitled for the study of the application of the safety system engineering theory to the analysis of the causes leading to hazardous accidents due to the hasty installations of the open stone quarries.And for the said purpose,we have proposed a novel method for early warning on the likely risk state and established the safety evaluation index system of such open rock quarry through a comprehensive investigation and intensive safety evaluation based on the analysis of the uncertainty factors that may affect the safety of such open stone quarries.The proposed index system can be said including four aspects：the safety management,the safety production,the safety environment,and the safety education with the nineteen safety evaluation indexes being included.To achieve the proposed purpose,we have resorted to the Hierarchy Analytic Process（HAP） to gain the weighting factors of all the indexes involved,trying to apply the set pair analysis theory to the calculation of the set pair analysis connection degree and the set pair potentials.In addition,we have also done quantitative and qualitative analysis to work out the exact safety conditions and the likely variation trend of the open stone quarry,which can help us to gain a higher accuracy for the actual status in-situ safety situation and its further developing tendency.What is more,we have also provided a more vivid description of an actual case study sample,which involves the investigation and analysis of the actual situation and features of the open stone quarry in Wuhan region,including an evaluation and prediction of the safety situation by the four risk factors,that is,the people,the machine,the environment and the management.The results of our investigation and evaluation show that this kind of safety evaluation and prediction of open stone quarry can be regarded as being feasible and effective,with the analysis method being simple in calculation and the evaluation system being reliable.Thus,the results of this investigation and analysis method can help to provide a new idea for uncertain system evaluation and prediction.It is actually of a great practical meaning to reduce the risk of open stone quarry to merely enhancing of the reliability and stability of such open rock quarries in production.