城市水资源安全综合评价体系研究——以山东省淄博市为例

On a comprehensive evaluation system of urban water safety——a case study of Zibo City,Shandong

水资源安全状况是城市社会经济可持续发展的基础保障。鉴于山东省淄博市的特殊情况,并根据淄博市的社会经济背景、水资源的特点,基于PSR模型建立了山东省淄博市水资源安全状况的评价指标体系,采用AHP确定指标权重,最后结合多层次模糊综合评价法对2014年山东淄博的水资源安全状况进行了评价。结果表明,淄博的水资源处于重度不安全状态,这极大地限制了该市的经济社会可持续发展能力。其中,影响水资源安全的因素为万元GDP用水量、工业废水排放量、化肥使用负荷、水资源可利用量、人均水资源量、环保投入占GDP比重。

This paper is aimed to make an exploration and investigation of the water resource shortage situation faced by Zibo City,Shandong,from the point of view of its water ecological deterioration and the consequential socio-economic contradictions it has to be confronted with.The research objectives of the paper may also include its proposal to establish a safety evaluation index system of the urban water resources,so as to identify and determinate the index weight and evaluation criteria by taking the evaluation of the water safety status-in-situ of the city as a case study sample.And,finally,a relevant conclusion has been made in accordance with the results we have gained through the aforementioned evaluation in combination with the index system of the urban water resources safety evaluation criteria.To achieve the above said goal,we have first of all worked out an index weight of the water safety evaluation system of the city by using the analytic hierarchy process along with the Yaahp consistency revision by the premise at all levels.And,next,we have established a set of indicative factors,an evaluation set of the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation indexes,through which it would be possible to identify and determine the fuzzy relation matrix and the triangular membership function for each set of indexes for the membership evaluation.And,last of all,a comprehensive evaluation of the water safety situation of the city has been done in accordance with the dominant maximum membership principle in reference to the previous evaluation criteria settled in 2014 in the city.The conclusion that has been done indicates that the water resource status-quo of the city for the time being belongs to the severe unsafe level at a safety rate merely of 32%,if the general criteria can be divided into the following four levels,that is,very safe level,safer level,and basic safe,a less secure level,that is,less than 32%,which proves that in 2014,the water resource of Zibo City under the current available exploration belongs to the severe unsafe level.Thus,the above detailed analysis helps to show the ultimate limitation of Zibo City in the water supply safety factors：the water consumption status quo for ten thousand Yuan,the industrial sewage emissions,the load of fertilizer-production consumption,the water availability per capita,and the environmental protection investment share of GDP.Thus from the above situation well discussed,it can be concluded that fully understanding of the status of the local water resources,the reasonable protection of the main factors of water resources to ensure the water supply safety has be made one of the principal approaches so as to promote the healthy coordinated development of the city.