基于MonteCarlo随机模拟的煤矿工作面环境评价模式研究

A model of the environment evaluation for the coal-mining goaf based on the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation

煤矿工作面空间有限且相对封闭,科学合理地评价作业环境,对于保障作业人员身心健康和安全生产具有重要意义。煤矿工作面作业环境评价属于典型的"相对评价问题",即部分评价指标具有区间模糊性,从而难以利用单次指标值给出客观准确的评价结论。借鉴类似研究,提出基于Monte Carlo随机模拟的工作面环境评价模式,即考虑粉尘、噪声、湿度和作业条件等指标的区间变化特征,利用均匀分布或正态分布模型随机取值,采用随机仿真算法多次充分求解,得到最大可能性排序链对应的评价结论。将其应用于某矿15513采煤工作面作业环境评价,结果表明,工作面环境等级为Ⅱ级,与模糊综合评判法得到的结论一致,也符合实际情况,但随机模拟评价模式得到的是包含概率特征的可能性结论,可为管理者提供被评价对象朝优劣方向发展的量化依据,进而可为决策者制定有效的环境治理措施提供参考。

Seeing that the current evaluation for the operating environment in the working face in the coal mine relies too much on the assessment scores given by the experts,the present paper intends to propose an explicit weighing method of indicative parameters in hoping to lead to almost absolute and simplified evaluation results.The method we have proposed lies in that,by utilizing a MonteC arlo Stochastic Simulation（MCSS） evaluation mode,it would be possible to overcome effectively the above-mentioned drawbacks at the presence of the definite index weighting parameters.Instead of the random variation of the environmental indicators in the working face,we have introduced a reasonable solution to get rid of the absolute evaluation.For instance,it is possible to organize the working environment influential factors into the typical ＂relative evaluation ＂ indexes with the interval fuzziness,which may bring about difficulties in using a single index to draw an objective and accurate evaluation conclusion.Through the analysis of the interval change characteristics of the dust,noise,humidity and operation conditions and so on,we can apply the uniform or normal distribution for generating some random data.And,then,we can manage to obtain a sequential chain of the maximum probabilities through MonteC arlo stochastic simulation and the inversion of the sorting algorithms.In so doing,we have also managed to avoid making too haste a conclusion with merely a single evaluation.Rather,the evaluation of the working environment of the mining face #15513 can be done with the established evaluation model we have developed.Thus,the results we have gained with the established evaluation model may indicate that the working environment can be relegated to grade Ⅱ.The conclusion we have made above proves consistent with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and well in accord with the real situation.Though this evaluation model of random simulation only brings about a conclusion with a probability characteristics,it can still provide a quantitative ground to predict the probability of a superior or inferior situation.And,correspondingly,it will help the policymakers to take more effective measures for the coal-mining environmental control and management.