氢气复合器算例数值模拟结果的不确定性分析和敏感性分析

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Simulation Results of Hydrogen Recombiner Case

在安全壳氢气分析中,由于输入参数具有不确定性,因此计算结果也具有不确定性。研究计算结果的变化范围,以及各输入参数对计算结果不确定性的贡献,在安全层面具有重要意义。为了对安全壳氢气复合器算例进行数值模拟,首先向计算流体力学程序HYDRAGON内添加复合器模型,然后选定燃爆转变因子和爆炸总能量及其相关的时刻量作为研究对象。对若干输入参数进行抽样后进行数值模拟。采用非参数统计方法,分析计算结果的不确定性,给出其变化范围。分析计算结果和输入参数之间的敏感性,筛选其不确定性出对计算结果影响较大的输入参数。

In the containment hydrogen analysis, there is uncertainty in the computation results because uncertainty exists in the input parameters. It is of great importance for the safety issue to study the variation ranges of the computation results as well as the contribution of each input parameter to the uncertainty of the results. In order to numerically simulate the hydrogen recombiner case in the containment, the recombiner model is firstly added to the computational fluid dynamics code HYDRAGON. Deflagration-detonation-transformation index, total explosion energy and related instance variables, are selected as objects of the study. Numerical simulations are performed after sampling for certain input parameters. The uncertainty of the computational results is studied with nonparametric statistical method and the variation ranges of the results are provided. Furthermore, the sensitivity between the computational results and the input parameters are investigated. The input parameters, whose uncertainty has larger influence on the computational results, are also screened out.