选举预测市场的运行机制、核心假设、预测效力及应用困境分析

An Analysis of the Operation Mechanism,Core Hypothesis,Forecast Validity and Application Dilemma in the Election Forecast Market

选举预测市场是因预测选举结果而形成的政治期货市场,具有发现和聚合信息的功能,其价格则被视为市场交易者整体对选举结果的或然性推测。本文探讨了选举预测市场的核心假设及其争议,发现其存在理论自洽和逻辑严密性上的困境;并基于"后见之明"的视角分析了选举预测市场价格与实际选举结果的实证数据,比较了选举预测市场与民意调查在选举预测上的准确性,验证发现选举预测市场的优势并不明显;最后,探讨了选举预测市场信息功能受限以及未能成为主流选情分析、选举研究、选举决策工具的原因。

The election prediction market is the political future market that results from the prediction of future election outcome,which has the information revelation and aggregation function. Its price is regarded as the speculation contingent on the election outcomes by market traders as a whole. This paper makes a detailed study of the core hypotheses of election prediction market and its controversies,and reveals the dilemma in its existence of theoretical self-consistency and logic rigor. On the other hand,the paper also makes a careful analysis of the empirical data of both election forecast market price and actual election results from the perspective of the＂hindsight＂,compares the accuracy in election prediction between the election forecast market and public opinion polls,and then proves that the election prediction market hasn＇t any obvious advantage over other election forecast methods. Finally,the paper probes into the limitations on information function of election prediction market and the reason why the election prediction market fails to become the mainstream tool for the election analysis,research and decision-making.