台湾服务业全要素生产率增长的估算:1985—2014

Estimation of the Total Factor Productivity Growth of Service Industry in Taiwan: 1985-2014

本文基于非参数模型的Malmquist指数方法,利用服务业分行业数据对台湾1985年至2014年服务业全要素生产率增长进行了估算。结果表明,台湾服务业属于要素投入主导型增长模式;技术进步是服务业全要素生产率增长的首要推动力量。分行业研究发现,知识密集型服务业行业全要素生产率较非知识密集型服务业行业有更高的增长率;技术进步对知识密集型服务业行业全要素生产率的贡献大于非知识密集型服务业行业。因此,通过积极发展知识密集型服务业,适当平衡技术进步与技术效率的作用等举措提升全要素生产率对服务业增长的贡献应成为台湾服务业未来发展的主要方向。

Based on the Malmquist index method of nonparametric model and using the sub-sector data of service industry,this paper forms a true estimation of the increase of the Total Factor Productivity（ TFP） of the service industry in Taiwan from1985 to 2014. Findings show that the Taiwan service industry belongs to the input oriented growth model and its technological progress is the primary driving force of the TFP growth in service industry. The study also finds that the growth rate of the TFP in knowledge-intensive service industry is higher than that in non-knowledge-intensive service industry and the technological progress contributes more to the TFP＇s growth rate of the knowledge-intensive service industry than to that of the non-knowledgeintensive service industry. Therefore,it should be the main direction of future development for Taiwan service industry to develop vigorously the knowledge-intensive service industry and properly balance the technological progress and efficiency so as to enhance the contribution of TFP growth rate in the service industry.