非均衡与平均利润率的变化:一个马克思主义分析框架

Non-Equilibrium and Dynamics in Equalized Profit Rate:A Marxian General Analytical Framework

马克思的利润率下降理论是在假设再生产均衡的前提下讨论的。在现代马克思主义经济学中流行的"置盐定理"(Okishio Theorem)也建立在该假设之上。本文则从资本积累的基本矛盾以及由此产生的再生产失衡的立场出发,构建了一个新的解释平均利润率变动的模型。根据这个模型,平均利润率变化是由技术进步、实际工资和产品实现率这三个因素决定的。如果在计量分析中能有效地解决这三个因素(尤其是产品实现率)的经验度量问题,则该模型也可为解释经济周期和危机的经验研究奠定理论基础。

Marx＇s argument about the tendency of the rate of profit to fall assumes that there exists e- quilibrium in reproduction. The so-called Okishio Theorem in contemporary Marxian economics is based up- on the similar assumption. This article questions this assumption, and constructs a new model to explain fluctuations in the average rate of profit, which is from the perspective of fundamental contradictions of cap- ital accumulation and subsequent disequilibrium of reproduction. According to this model, changes in the rate of profit are due to triple factors, including technical progress, real wages, and the ratio of output real- ization. This new approach might lay a theoretical foundation for any further empirical research on business cycles and crisis, providing the aforementioned triple factors can be measured properly by econometric anal-ysis.