中国经济向新常态转换的冲击影响机制研究

The Impact Mechanism of Shocks to China's Transformation to the New Normal Economy

本文分析了中国自2007年以来逐步向新常态经济转换的冲击影响机制。运用SV-TVP-VAR模型分析了2001年第1季度至2015第3季度间以技术冲击和投资冲击代表的供求冲击对中国经济波动的动态影响机制,结果表明这两种冲击的影响机制都在2007年左右发生了结构性的转变。具体表现为:首先从影响的方向来看,投资冲击的短期影响为正但波动性加大,中长期的影响则变为负值且影响逐步增强,无论是从短期还是中长期来看技术冲击对中国经济增长的正面影响逐步增强,但从2014年以来影响有所下降;其次从影响的数量来看,分时段的方差分解表明2007年之后投资冲击对产出波动的解释力度大幅上升,而技术冲击的影响比较平稳。这些结论说明中国经济向新常态的转换主要源于需求侧的不利冲击,但最近以来供求冲击都呈现了不利的影响,为此本文提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper studies the impact mechanism of shocks to China＇ s transformation to the New Normal Economy since 2007. We use SV-TVP-VAR model to analyze the impact mechanism of technology shock and investment shock on behave of supply and demand shocks to China＇ s economic fluctuations during 2001Q1 ~ 2015Q3. We find there exists a structural change to the impact mechanism around 2007,which we can specify as,firstly investment shock has a positive impact in the short run but its volatility increase hence,and it has a increasingly negative impact in the meddle and long run. Contrarily,technology shock has a positive impact and the impact increases no matter in the short,meddle or long run,but the impact decrease from 2014. Secondly,from the quantity aspect,the impact of investment shock increase since2007 but the impact from technology shock remains stable. These conclusions declare that the negative impact from demand shocks should be the main reason for China＇s structural change to New Normal Economy,however,both impact from supply and demand shocks deteriorate recently,and we also put forward some corresponding policy recommendations.