情报分析:定义、意义构建与流程

Intelligence Analysis:Definition,Sense-making and Processes

本论文通过分析总结现有的相关研究,讨论了情报分析的定义和基本流程。通过引进意义构建理论,讨论了情报分析过程中的主观性。本研究的结论是:情报分析是通过研究信息而了解有关状况的过程。分析的核心是"确定信息的含义"。信息不是独立于人类行为单独、客观存在的东西。信息是人们主观的诠释。不同的时间、地点、环境都会影响人们的诠释。有关人员的专业知识也影响对信息的理解,新手和专家差距很大。因此,情报分析主要应该是专家行为。情报分析的流程包括假设驱动的流程和数据驱动的流程。这两种流程没有优劣之分,它们对不同的环境有不同的适用性。但在高度不确定性,复杂性的信息分析中,假设驱动更具效率。本研究填补了情报分析研究中的空白。

The thesis discussed the definition and processes of intelligence analysis through analysis and summery of current research on intelligence analysis, and discussed the subjectivity of intelligence of intelligence analysis by introducing sense-making theory into the research. The key conclusion of this research is as follows： Intelligence analysis is a process of understanding a situation concerned by studying information. The core part of analysis is determining the meaning of information. Information is not something that exists objectively apart from human behaviors . Rather, it is subjective interpretation by people. Different time, places and professional knowledge make people have different interpretation of the same information. Novices and experts are quite different in understanding information. Thus intelligence analysis is mainly a job of experts. The processes of intelligence analysis can be hypotheses-driven process or data-driven process. There are no differences of superiority between the two processes, but each has different adaptive advantage for different situation. In a situation of high uncertainty and complexity, intelligence analysis hypotheses-driven process is more efficient. The research has filled a research gap in intelligence analysis.