人口与经济增长关系的再检验--基于人口活跃度-经济模型的分析

Re-checking the Relationship between Population and Economic Growth:Based on Population's Active Factors and Economic model

为了检验人口与经济增长之间的关系,文章在宏观生产函数中引入人口活跃度变量,采用省级面板数据和固定效应模型进行分析。结果显示,人口活跃度及各活跃因子与经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系;人口各因素综合起来通过资本促进、劳动促进和外部性途径对经济增长起着显著的推动作用,人口活跃度对经济产出的外部性作用明显大于其他路径的作用,这一方面证明人口发展的综合活跃因素是经济增长的内生动力,而非外生因素;另一方面说明在经济增长中并非单一人口因素起作用。模型计算结果还显示,人口综合因素提高了全要素生产率在经济增长中的贡献,促进了经济增长方式由粗放扩张型逐步向集约技术型转变,是全要素生产率提升的重要变量之一。同时也表明,引入人口活跃度的生产函数模型比传统模型对中国经济增长更具有解释力,克服了传统生产函数无法显示人口因素对要素配置作用途径的缺陷,能够使劳动产出贡献凸显出来。

Since the reform and opening up, Chinese economy has achieved miraculous growth. Meanwhile, the transition and development of demography have attracted worldwide attention. In order to reveal the relationship between the population and economic development, this paper introduces the active factors of the population into the production function and conducts an empirical study by using the provincial Panel Data and the fixed effect model. The results find that there is a long- term stable relationship between the population transition and the economic growth. All the factors of population play significant roles in economic growth through capital promotion, labour promotion and external effect that is more obvious than others. According to the calculation, the comprehensive factor of population improves the contribution of total factor productivity in economic growth, and promotes the change of economic growth pattern from extensive expansion to intensive technical one. Compared with the traditional model, the production function with active factors is more explanatory on China's economic growth.