1965~2014年我国温度和降水变化趋势分析

Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change Trend in China during 1965 to 2014

利用中国地面气候资料日值数据中的385个台站1965~2014年气温和降水资料,采用统计分析和OPTICS等方法,对近50 a我国日最高、最低、平均气温和降水量的整体变化趋势以及不同时段的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明,近50 a来我国整体升温,华南以及华中地区南部、西南地区北部升温较弱;东北,华北地区北部,西北地区升温较强,且最低气温升高程度普遍高于平均气温和最高气温。全国范围内降水变化区域差异较大,华东地区降水明显增多,西南、华北地区降水减少;东北、华中地区降水变化区域性差异较大,西北地区降水变化程度不大,以增加为主。近50 a来东北、华北地区在1985~1994年增温最快,华南、华中、西南,西北地区西南部在1995~2004年增温最快;而2005~2014年我国大部分台站呈现变冷趋势。降水方面,华东地区降水明显增多,西南、华北地区降水减少,降水明显变化主要发生在4~10月,对西南地区降水减少贡献最大的是6、8月;华北降水减少主要发生在7~8月;华东地区降水增加月份是1、3、7和8月,减少程度较大的月份是4、5和9月。

Based on the temperature and precipitation resources of 385 stations in daily data of ground climatic resources of China from 1965 to2014,statistical analysis and OPTICS method were used to analyze the overall trend of daily maximum,daily minimum,average temperature and precipitation in China in recent 50 years,as well as the change trends of different time periods.Result showed that there was an overall warming trend in China in recent 50 years.The warming trend was weak in south China,southern part of central China,and northern part of southwest China;while in northeast China,northern part of north China and northwest China,the warming trend was strong.In these areas,the the elevated level in lowest temperature was generally higher than that of the average temperature and the highest temperature.Precipitation change showed great regional differences in China.There was an obvious precipitation increase in east China,while there was a decrease in southwest and north China.The precipitation variation in northwest China was relatively small,while those in northeast and central China were relatively great.In the past 50 years,the northeast China and north China had the fastest increase in temperature in 1995-2004,while stations in most areas of China showed a trend of getting cold in 2005-2014.As for precipitation,there was an obvious increase in East China,while there was a decrease in southwest and north China.The precipitation variation mainly occurred from April to October.And July and August had the greatest contribution to the precipitation decrease in southwest China.Precipitation decrease in north China mainly occurred from July to August;while precipitation increase mainly appeared in January,March,July and August;and the reduced degree was the maximum in April,May and September.