气候变化对宿州农业的影响

Research on the Influence of Climate Change on Agriculture of Suzhou City

利用1982~2014年宿州市逐日气温、降水量资料,采用趋势分析法和M-K突变检验法对近33 a来宿州气温和降水的变化趋势及其对农业的影响进行了分析,并研究了气候变化对农业生产的应对途经。结果表明,1982年以来宿州市气温上升明显,但年降水量变化不大,年降水分布极为不均衡,大部分降水集中在雨季。气候变化给宿州农业带来了较大影响,主要表现在农作物生长的脆弱性和气候变化造成的极端天气导致农业气象灾害加剧,同时气候变化通过对土壤、水分和病虫害的影响间接影响宿州农业的发展,使农业生产面临的风险和损失增大。应该顺应变化,培育优良品种,积极调整农业种植格局;加强农业气候灾害防控,提升农业基础设施建设。

By using the daily temperature and precipitation data of Suzhou City in 1982-2014,effects of climate and precipitation change on agriculture were analyzed in Suzhou City in recent 33 years by trend analysis method and M-K mutation test.Response approach of climate change to agricultural production was researched.Result showed that climate significantly increased in Suzhou City since 1982,but the annual change of precipitation was slight.The annual precipitation distribution was extremely uneven;most of the precipitation concentrated in the rainy season.Climate change brought relatively great impacts on the agriculture in Suzhou City,such as the aggravation of the vulnerability of crop growth and the agrometeorological disasters caused by extreme weather.At the same time,effects of climate change indirectly affected the development of agriculture in Suzhou City through soil,water and plant diseases and insect pests,which led to greater risk and loss of agricultural production.Therefore,we should comply with the change,cultivate improved varieties,actively adjust the agricultural planting structure,strengthen the prevention and control of agricultural climate disasters,and enhance the infrastructure construction of agriculture.