1999~2012年若羌绿洲耕地变化研究

Study on the Change of Cultivated Land in Ruoqiang Oasis during 1999-2012

根据1999~2012年若羌县人口、耕地和社会经济发展统计数据,运用数理统计和主成分分析方法,研究了若羌绿洲耕地变化情况及驱动力。结果表明：若羌县耕地变化显著,耕地面积经历了减少—迅速增长—慢速减少的变化过程;各地耕地相对变化率分布的空间格局不一,若羌镇、吾塔木乡耕地的相对变化率为小于1,铁干里克乡、瓦石峡乡耕地的相对变化率为大于1,瓦石峡乡的最高,为2.77;从时段上看,2002~2008年驱动力综合得分增长较为缓慢,2009~2012年驱动力综合得分增加迅速,表明影响若羌县耕地变化的综合因子的驱动力在逐渐加强。

Based on the data of population,arable land,social and economic development in Ruoqiang from 1999 to 2012,the changes and driving forces of cultivated land in Ruoqiang oasis were studied by means of mathematical statistics and principal component analysis.The results showed that the change of cultivated land was significant,cultivated land area experienced the change process of decrease,rapid growth,slow reduction;the spatial distribution of relative change rate was uneven,the relative change rate of Ruoqiang Town,Wutamu Village was less than 1,Tieganlike Village and Washixia Village was above 1,Washixia was highest as 2.77;seeing from period,comprehensive score of driving force during 2002-2008 was increased slowly,while during 2009-2012,it was increased rapidly,indicating that driving force of comprehensive score influencing Ruoqiang County cultivated land change was gradually strengthened.