天气因素导致的航班延误问题研究

Research on Flight Delay Problem with Weather Interference

针对天气干扰下的分季节的航班过站衔接时间优化问题,在对各个航班的潜在延误风险等级评价的基础上,通过历史数据研究天气因素导致的航班延误概率分布,求得各航班波及延误的期望,以优化前后总的波及延误之差最大化为目标函数,分别建立分季节优化松约束模型和紧约束模型,对航班衔接过站时间进行优化。最后以国内某航空公司的航班数据为算例,进行验证并比较。研究结果表明,分季节的松约束模型和紧约束模型均比原计划减少了波及延误的时间,且松约束模型的优化效果更明显。

The research consider the weather season points under the interference of flight station connecting time optimization problem,on potential delays of flights,on the basis of risk assessment through the historical data research weather causes delays probability distribution,the expectations of each affected flight delays,and then to optimize the total delay spread before and after the difference between the maximization as the objective function,respectively set up points season optimization model and tight constraints model,optimize the flight to connect and standing time. Finally a domestic airlines flight data as example,to verify and compare. The results show that the season＇s model and tight constraints model are compared to the original plan,reduced the amount of time delay spread and loose constraint model optimization effect is more obvious.