基于梯形模糊理论货航机务系统风险综合评估

A Synthetic Risk Assessment of Cargo Airline Maintenance System Based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy

伴随着航空货运网络的迅速发展和飞机老龄化现象日趋严重,机务维修对货运航空安全运行意义重大。鉴于机务系统所含不确定因素较多,其数据存在模糊性及不确定性的特点,采用梯形模糊理论与AHP层次分析法相结合,依据某货运航空的实际情况,从人、机、环、管四个方面建立了机务维修系统风险评估层次模型,构造了系统的可能性、严重度及风险值的梯形模糊风险评估表,并对各因素进行了风险评估。结果表明,梯形模糊综合评估所得的结果较好地反映了货航现阶段的安全水平,并针对其中风险较高的六个指标提出三点维修风险控制措施,为提高机务系统安全性提供了参考。

With the rapid development of air freight net and theaggravation of aging airplanes,aviation maintenance have significant meaning in ensuring the safe flight of cargo airlines. Due to the uncertain nature of the maintenance system,the data obtained is lack of exactness and definiteness. An integration of trapezoidal fuzzy theory and Analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） is adopted. According to the cargo airlines actual situation,in terms of human、machine、environment and management,the maintenance system hierarchy analytic model is built. The trapezoidal risk assessment table is constructed,which consists of probability,severity and risk value,and assesses risk value of the factors. The result of trapezoidal fuzzy theory is preferably indicated the safety level of the cargo airlines at this stage. And three maintenance risk control measuresare given for the six factors which have the highest risk value,so that improve the safety level of maintenance system as a reference.