基于灰色系统理论的长汀县森林火灾灾变预测

Forest Fire Disaster Prediction of Changting County based on the Grey System Theory

依据灰色系统建模理论,建立长汀县森林火灾高火险年和重灾年灰色灾变GM（1,1）预测模型,模型模拟检验精度达到一级水平,模型发展系数-a小于0.3,可用于该县森林火灾灾变的中长期预测。预测结果表明：2015~2030年间,该县将出现4个森林火灾高火险年,3个森林火灾重灾年,出现的间隔期为3~5年,预测平均相对精度达到98%以上,2017年既是高火险年,又是重灾年,预测精度分别为97.92%和98.19%。

In accordance with the grey system modeling theory, the grey disaster GM （ 1,1 ） prediction model was set up for the high risk fire years and serious fire disaster years of Changting County. The simulation test accuracy of the model reached the level I with the development index - a less than 0.3, that means the model may be used for the mid - term and long - term prediction for the forest fire disaster of Changing County. The prediction results showed that, during Year 2015 -2030, there will be 4 high fire risk years and 3 serious fire disaster years in the County, with the lagging time of 3 to 5 years. The prediction average relative precision will be more than 98%. Year 2017 will be both the high risk fire year and the serious fire disaster year, with the prediction accuracy of 97.92% and 98.19% respectively.