气候变化对中国东部季风区水循环及水资源影响与适应对策

Impact of climate change and adaptive strategy on terrestrial water cycle and water resources in East Monsoon Area of China

中国东部季风区水循环及水资源变化复杂,水旱灾害频繁,其中既有强烈的季风区自然变化影响,又有气候变化中二氧化碳排放导致的人为强迫的影响。近些年作者团队的研究表明:中国陆地水循环主要变化是由温室气体排放的影响叠加在东部季风区显著的自然变率背景下共同作用形成的,其中自然变率对降水影响的贡献约占70%,人为强迫的贡献占30%;随着未来二氧化碳排放的贡献率逐步增大,中国极端水旱灾害有进一步增加的态势,气温每升高1°C,华北农业耗水约增加4%总用水量;气候变化对中国东部季风区长江、黄河、淮河、海河以及珠江等八大流域的水循环以及南水北调(中线)重大调水工程有突出的影响与风险,需针对水资源脆弱性变化与水安全问题,采取适应性的对策与措施。

The change of water cycling and water resources in China Eastern monsoon area is rather complicated, which has both strong monsoon influences of natural changes and climate change impact caused by carbon dioxide emissions due to anthropogenic forcing. The major change of land water cycle is the co-action of greenhouse gas emissions impact superposition in the eastern monsoon region and the natural variability of interaction, which the natural variability contribution to the influence of precipitation accounted for about 70% and anthropogenic forcing about 30%. With future increasing CO2 emissions contribution rate, the extreme floods will have further increasing. Also, along with rising temperature of 1 ℃ in North China, the agricultural water consumption will increase about 4% of the total water consumption. Thus, there are significant impacts of climate change and its risk on China＇s eastern monsoon region, which covered almost of eight major river basins, such as Yangtze river, Yellow River, Huai River, Hai River and Pearl River, as well as the major water transfer （middle line）. For the water security issue, it is necessary to take adaptive countermeasures and measures to reduce the vulnerability of water resources and their risks.