基于概率分析的非常规油气选区方法

Method for Unconventional Oil & Gas Area Selection Based on Probabilistic Analysis

为有效筛选出具有开发潜力和经济效益的非常规油气区带,有必要在统一标准下建立非常规油气的选区模型。在研究非常规区带石油地质特征的基础上,分析了控制非常规油气资源成藏和开采的关键因素,建立了以地质条件和资源情况为评价对象的双因素半定量评价模型;通过分析北美23个非常规区带中每个评价参数的概率分布特征及有利区取值要求,确定模型中各参数评价的指标体系,并据此对待评价区带的地质条件和资源情况两个因素进行打分评价。通过对资源潜力较大和储层特性认识较深的已开发非常规油气区带的开发效果评价,验证了用地质条件和资源情况两个因素来描述非常规区带所建立的选区评价模型,可以清晰地揭示待评价非常规区带的开发潜力;采用概率分析的方法确定各参数的评价指标,有效解决了非常规油气评价中参数不确定性大的问题,更适合非常规油气资源的选区评价。

To screen out unconventional oil & gas area with development potential and economic benefit,it is necessary to establish a model for unconventional oil & gas under unified standard.A dual-factor semi-quantative evaluating model has been developed with geological and resource condition as target by studying petroleum geology at unconventional areas and analyzing key factors controlling unconventional oil & gas resource reservoir forming and exploitation.With probabilistic distribution analysis of each evaluating parameters from 23 unconventional areas in North America,the grading criteria for each parameter were determined respectively on their favorable tendency,which were applied to the evaluation on geological conditions and resource of unconventional areas.Based on the evaluation of unconventional developed oil & gas areas with great resource potentials and better understanding on reservoir characteristics,it is verified that the development potential of unconventional areas can be well indicated by describing evaluating models at unconventional areas via geological and resource conditions.Probabilistic analysis applied in determining grading criteria mitigates the uncertainly of parameters,which is more suitable for unconventional resource evaluation.