基于马尔柯夫模型的高校师资结构预测

Prediction on teachers structure of university based on Markov model

教师是高校的主体,良好师资队伍结构是高校可持续发展的基础和前提.为了促进高校师资结构的合理配置,以马尔柯夫模型原理为基础,研究了预测过程并详细说明各步的计算方法;对某高校未来5年的师资结果进行预测和分析.结果表明,该预测模型可以有效地提高预测精度,由于系统各种状态的相互转移概率经常发生变化,该方法更适用于短期预测.

Teaching faculty is the mainstay of colleges and universities. Sound teaching staff structure is the foundation and prerequisite for sustainable development of colleges and universities. In order to promote the rational allocation of the teaching staff structure,the paper studied the forecasting process and made a detailed introduction of the calculation method of each step based on the principle of Markov model. Then it forecasted and analyzed the results of the college＇s teaching staff in the next five years. The results showed that the forecasting model may effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Because of the mutual transition probabilities of various system state change frequently,this method is more applicable for short-term prediction.