城市交通低碳发展策略的系统动力学分析——基于土地利用视角

Analysis on Low-Carbon Development Strategies of Urban Transport with System Dynamics——Based on Land Use

随着城市环境的恶化,城市低碳交通建设迫在眉睫。本文从土地利用角度构建城市交通碳排放与土地利用的系统动力学模型,得出城市交通低碳发展的两种策略,并以长春市为例,对两种策略方案进行了仿真分析。结果表明,提高土地利用强度和增大土地混合利用程度均能使交通碳排放减少,而且增加土地多样性程度的实施效果要优于土地利用强度的提高。

With the deterioration of urban environment,construction of urban low- carbon transportation is imminent. From the perspective of land use,a system dynamics model of carbon emissions and land use is proposed,and two development strategies of urban low- carbon transportation are obtained. Taking Changchun as an example,simulation is made on the two strategies. Results indicate that increase of land- use diversity and increase of land- use intensity are advantageous to the reduction of carbon emission. Furthermore,the effect of the former is superior to the latter.