面向应急决策的专家意见融合研究

Research on Expert Opinion Fusion Oriented to Emergency Decision-making

基于既有应急参考咨询团队构建模式研究,设计面向应急决策的专家意见融合流程。首先,依据专家评估意见定性化描述语言集合,借由两极比例法和归一化方法,量化专家评估意见;然后,采用熵权法计算属性指标的权重,使用专家综合排名mass值作为专家评估意见的权重;其次,获取各专家评估矩阵的模糊正理想解和模糊负理想解,通过加权欧式距离计算各专家方案隶属于模糊正理想解的程度,获取各专家应急方案排名;再次,召集人将排名情况及分析结果反馈给各专家,据此,专家对各自评价意见做出调整,之后重复二三阶段任务,直至获取决策方案的最终排名。最后以"森林火灾监测站点选址"为示例,说明本文所提专家意见融合流程的可行性和合理性。

Based on previous research on construction mode of emergency expert team for virtual reference, this paper has designed the process of opinion fusion oriented to emergency decision-making. Firstly, according to set of qualitative description language, expert assessment views have quantitatively been dealed with via bipolar scaling method and normalization method. Secondly, information entropy has been used to calculate the weight of emergency plan properties and expert ranking mass value has been integrated to the weight of expert assessment views. Thirdly, convenor has assessed the opinions experts submitted, which includes three steps： the first step is to obtain fuzzy positive ideal solution and fuzzy negative ideal solution; the second step to calculate the distance between emergency plan and two fuzzy ideal solutions through weighted Euclidean distance; the last step is to calculate membership degree of every emergency plan to fuzzy positive ideal solution, which is the standard of emergency plan ranking. Fourth, the feedback on ranking situation and analysis results have been given to every expert, experts adjust their evaluation views, and then second and third stage task have been repeated until eventual ranking of emergency plan has been received. Finally, instance analysis about selection of forest fire monitoring sites has demonstrated that the procedure is feasible and reliable.