基于Mann-Kendall法的寿县气温变化趋势和突变分析

Analysis on Air-Temperature Variation Trend and Abrupt Change in Shouxian County Based on Mann-Kendall Method

基于Mann-Kendall等方法对寿县1955—2015年的气温序列进行统计分析,结果表明:寿县近60多年来年平均气温存在明显的上升趋势,增温速率为0.349℃/10年,其中春季、秋季和冬季变暖趋势明显,夏季变暖趋势相对较弱。年平均气温20世纪50—80年代偏低,90年代以来持续偏暖;年平均气温大体可分为2个阶段,1955—1993年为偏冷阶段,1994—2015年为偏暖阶段,2个阶段平均气温差异显著,年平均气温在1998年发生了增暖突变。春季、秋季、冬季平均气温与年平均气温变化特征相似,但增温突变的时间有差异,春季增温突变发生在1999年,秋季增温突变发生在1997年,冬季增温突变发生在1990年。夏季平均气温变化特征比较独特,1958年发生了一次降温突变,没有发生增温突变。

Based on the Mann-Kendall and other methods of statistical analysis of the temperature series in Shou County from 1955 to 2015, the results showed that the average temperature has obvious upward trend last 60 years ,warming rate of 0.349 ℃/10a in Shou County.Warming trend is obvious in spring,autumn and winter,and the trend is relatively weak in summer.The annual average temperature of 1950-1980 s was on the low side, continued warm since the 1990s.Annual average temperature generally can be divided into two stages, for slant cold stage from 1955 to 1993, for slant warm stage from 1994 to 2015.Significant difference was found in two phases of average temperature,annual average temperature of the warming mutation happened in 1998.Spring, autumn,winter average temperature and annual average temperature variation characteristics were similar, but there were differences about the time of the warming mutation, spring warming mutation occurred in 1999, autumn wanning mutation occurred in 1997, the winter warming mutation occurred in 1990.Summer average temperature changes with unique features ,a cool mutation happened in 1958 ,the warming mutation did not happen.