美国对外使用武力的历史考察

A Historical Study of the U.S.Military Behavior

对美国国会研究局档案资料进行数据挖掘,并就1798—2010年期间美国的武力使用做统计分析,发现美国武力使用的频率呈波动上升趋势。冷战期间是个例外,出现了武力使用记录减少的情况。冷战后则是另一个极端,美国的武力使用出现爆发性增长。对于这些趋势,可以做如下解释。在崛起阶段,美国使用武力主要是为了扩张和进行干涉,随着实力增强而扩大了武力使用的范围。成为大国后,美国不再单纯为了追求物质利益而使用武力,也为了缔造或维持秩序、推行其价值观念而使用武力。但是,受国内孤立主义思潮和国际竞争对手的制约,美国的武力使用并没有显著增多。实际上,在冷战期间,由于军事扩张一再受挫,美国开始重视战略威慑和常规威慑,同时非常倚重秘密行动,公开记录的武力使用还有所减少。但是同苏联的对抗造成全球性的持续紧张,让军工复合体绑架了美国的政策制定。冷战后,美国精英圈子普遍支持使用武力,在维持秩序、推进民主等口号下,武力的使用出现了爆发性增长。

Based on documents of the U.S.Congressional Research Services,this article establishes a dataset about the annual frequency of the US military conduct.It reveals that the frequency of the U.S.military conduct has waved up continuously.Yet,the Cold War era represents an anomaly in that fewer military activities are in record.The post-Cold War era constitutes another extreme case as the use of force boomed.For these statistical findings,this article proposes a time series explanation.It contends that the U.S.when in rising stage constantly applied military force to pursue expansionist and interventionist objectives.The more strength it gains,the more frequent use is in return.In the latter stage,as a newly established power,it sought to establish and maintain international order and to promote its preferred value system,both of which conditionally justify the use of force.Domestic isolationism and structural restraints,however,can often curb the use of force.In the Cold War years,as the U.S.attached more importance to strategic deterrence and heavily relied on covert activities,lower frequency of the use of force is witnessed.Yet,the confrontation with the Soviet Union constantly threatened peaceful life of that era and let the military-industrial complex kidnapped the U.S.policy making process.In the post-Cold War years,the use of force gains popularity in the U.S.elite circles and hence results in a sudden increase to echo fashionable claims such as managing international order,promoting democratic values,etc.