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预期管理对防范系统性银行危机的启示 被引量:1

Enlightenment of Expectation Management to Prevent Systemic Banking Crisis
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摘要 当前,非金融企业过高的债务压力已成为制约企业发展、威胁经济金融安全稳定的重大因素。恐慌性心理理论强调政府通过财政政策来保障市场信用状态,稳定市场信心;货币非中性理论分析了利率和预期的资本边际收益在风险爆发和最终走出危机过程中的作用,强调运用货币数量工具,加强市场的预期管理,从而实现对"预期的资本之边际收益"的有效管理。 Nowadays, debt bubble, especially excessive debt stress on the non-financial enterprises have been major factors limiting their development and threaten the stability and security of economy and finance. Restoring stabil- ity to financial markets and preventingsystemic banking crisis have become an unavoidable problem. Panic psychologi- cal theoryemphasizedthat the government shouldmaintaincredit status and market confidencethrough fiscal policy. The non-neutrality of money theory analyzes on the role of capital marginal revenue of interest rates and expectation in risk outbreak and out of the crisis. It emphasizes on the usage of monetary amount tool and strengthening the market expecta- tion management, which helps achieve an effective management with an expected capital margin revenue.
作者 卢文华
机构地区 中国社会科学院
出处 《金融发展研究》 北大核心 2016年第5期12-16,共5页 Journal Of Financial Development Research
关键词 恐慌性心理因素 货币非中性 银行危机 预期管理 panic psychological factors, non-neutrality of money, banking crisis, expectation management
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  • 1美政策或致超级金融危机,油价低伤石油美元体系.网易财经,2015年12月25日.http://money.163.corn/15/1225/11/BBM70NK90025380H.html.
  • 2中国银监会发布2015年三季度主要监管指标数据.http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/chinese/home/docView/8F21D6FAEF744BF3AIFCB,8378857382AF.htm1.
  • 3凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].商务印书馆,1987.

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