基于虚拟水策略对青岛市水供需平衡的研究

The Research of Water Supply and Demand Balance in Qingdao Based on Virtual Water Strategy

文章针对青岛市水资源匮乏现状,借助Matlab、Eviews等软件,综合运用了虚拟水策略、BP神经网络等方法,建立了多元线性回归、虚拟水交易、BP神经网络等模型,对青岛市水资源问题进行了研究。结果表明青岛市未来15年将持续处于供水不足的状态,并且这种状况逐年加剧。通过虚拟水交易可以有效缓解青岛市水缺乏问题,带动周边地区农业发展,使整个水生态系统的资源配置趋于合理。由于虚拟水战略中运输成本几乎由政府财政负担,在2028年后,财政收入将无力负担大幅度增加的缺水量,青岛市又将面临水资源不足这一严峻问题等结论。

According to the present water scarcity of Qingdao,we used virtual water trade,BP neural networks and other methods to establish models of multiple linear regression,virtual water trade,BP neural networks and so on by Matlab,Eviews and other software. Then we studied the water problems in Qingdao. We concluded that Qingdao would stay in the state of increasingly serious water scarcity in next 15 years; virtual water trade could effectively mitigate water scarcity in Qingdao and drive the agricultural developments in its surrounding areas and optimize the distribution of resources in the entire water ecosystem. Because of transportation costs in the virtual water strategy almost borne by the government finance,but the fiscal income would unable to pay for a substantial increase of water deficit in 2028,which meant that after year 2028,Qingdao would face the serious problem of water shortage again.