服务业发展如何促进居民消费?——基于我国省际动态面板模型的分析

How to Improve Residents' Consumption by Develping Tertiary——Based on provincial dynamic panel model

服务业对居民消费水平的影响主要通过直接提高服务质量、拓展服务领域和间接提高居民收入、减少分配差距两条途径达成。不同的服务行业所具有的特性决定了其对居民消费的影响程度的差异。文章通过GMM估计方法,并以固定效应面板模型为对照,对我国31省市2004-2013年的动态面板数据进行计量检验,在此基础上分析了服务业内部各行业对居民消费的影响。结果表明,除房地产业的发展在一定程度上制约了居民消费的增长,服务业内部其他各行业均能对居民消费水平提高起到一定的促进作用,并以金融行业的促进作用最大。因此合理调整资源配置,优化服务业内部结构对扩大居民消费具有重要意义。

Tertiary affect residents consumption by two ways. The first one is to improve the service quality and expand the serv-ice area. The second one is to increase the income of residents and decrease the distribution gap. The characteristic of different service sector decided the difference of their influence in the consumption. This paper uses GMM to analyse the data of China between 2004 to 2013 while we make a fixed effected model as a control. Based on the output of the model, we analyse the influence of different service industry in the consumption. The results show that every service sector has some positive effect on resident consumption except the prop-erty sector and compared with the other sectors the finance sector plays the largest role in stimulating consumption. As a result, it is very important to adjustment the allocation of resources and optimize the internal structure of the service industry.