城市化、国际贸易与经济增长:互动机制与实证分析——以安徽省为例

Research on the Relation Among Urbanization, International Trade and Economic Growth of Anhui Province–Based on Anhui

作为经济增长的内、外动力,城市化、国际贸易在经济增长过程中扮演重要角色。本文运用脉冲响应函数、VAR模型等方法,利用1978—2014年时间序列数据,对安徽省经济增长与进出口贸易、城市化水平这三者之间的经济联系进行实证研究。结果显示,城市化水平、国际贸易与经济增长之间表现出长期均衡关系,城市化水平与国际贸易对经济增长的冲击效应都是正面的,但冲击效应的强度存在差异。因此,为促进安徽省经济平稳快速发展,需在国际贸易和城市化进程等方面采取措施,实现两者的良性互动。

The economic growth bases on the mechanism of the urbanization and international trade. The article applies the impulse response function and the VAR model and other measurement methods to analyze the relationship between urbanization level, international trade and economic growth of Anhui province with 1978-2013 series data. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among urbanization level, international trade and economic growth. Furthermore, both urbanization level and international trade have a positive effect on economic growth, but impact strength is different. Therefore, in order to promote steady and rapid economic development of Anhui province, it is urgent to take targeted measure on international trade and development of cities.