基于生态足迹模型的福建省可持续发展研究

Research of the sustainable development in Fujian province based on the ecological footprint model

生态足迹是衡量区域可持续发展通用的指标,运用生态足迹模型计算了2009—2013年福建省人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力及生态赤字,结果表明,2009—2013年福建省人均生态足迹不断增大,由2009年的1.930hm^2上升到2013年的2.358hm^2;人均生态承载力不断减小,由2009年的0.501hm^2减小到2013年的0.397hm^2。人均生态赤字由2009年的-1.429hm^2增大到2013年的-1.961hm^2。并用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对福建省可持续发展状况进行预测,表明福建省生态赤字将进一步加大,生态环境处于不安全状态,社会经济属于不可持续发展状态。

The ecological footprint is a measure of general indicator of regional sustainable development.In this work,an ecological footprint model was applied to calculate the per capita ecological footprint,the per capita ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit in fujian province from 2009 to 2013,the results show that per capita ecological footprint of fujian province was constantly increased,from 1.930hm^2 in 2009 to 2.358hm^2 in 2013,while the per capita ecological carrying capacity was gradually decreased from 0.501hm^2 in 2009 to 0.397hm^2 in 2013,and the per capita ecological deficit was negatively increased from-1.429hm^2 in 2009to-1.961hm^2 in 2013.The use of grey GM（1,1）forecast model to forecast the sustainable development in fujian province shows that ecological deficit will further increase,the ecological environment will be in an unsafe state,social economy belongs to the situation of unsustainable development.