国际贸易、不完全契约与TFP——基于中国制造业行业数据经验

International trade, Incomplete Contracts and Total Factor Productivity Based on the Data of China's Industries

采用面板效应估计深入考察了不完全契约、贸易自由化对中国制造业36个行业全要素生产率的影响及其作用机制,研究发现,不完全契约通过贸易自由化显著提高了行业全要素生产率水平。利用2002和2007年的投入产出表测算不完全契约指数,发现不完全契约对全要素生产率影响比较稳健。另外,行业规模显著提高了行业的全要素生产率水平,不同样本回归结果显示,在高开放度行业、高契约指数行业,不完全契约的影响效果显著高于低开放度行业、低契约指数行业,而在低生产率水平的行业,不完全契约的生产率效应显著高于相应的高生产率水平的行业。

This paper tries to use panel model to explore the impact of incomplete contracts and international trade on TFP of China＇s 36 industries, through which those factors affect TFP. The evidence shows that incomplete contract improves TFP at industry level through international trade. The paper uses inputoutput table in 2002 and 2007 to construct indices of incomplete contracts, and finds that the impact of incomplete contracts on TFP is robust. In addition, industry scale promotes TFP at industry level greatly. Then by means of sub-sample estimates, it is found that the impact of incomplete contracts on TFP in industry with bigger indices of incomplete contracts is greater than that in smaller indices of incomplete contracts, that is the ease in industry with greater international trade independence. The impact of incomplete contract on TFP is going in the opposite direction in industry with bigger TFP.