油田工程项目建设风险管理研究

Research on risk management of engineering project construction of oil fields

对风险管理的相关理论进行系统梳理后,将灰色系统理论的思想引入油田工程项目建设风险管理中。在利用FHW法对项目基础数据进行分析的基础上,利用灰色关联分析法对项目中各风险因素与项目目标的关联度进行综合评价。根据分准则层权重和与目标关联度大小,得到全部工程项目方案的排序,实现项目方案优选。对国内某油田2006—2014年12个工程建设项目的实例研究发现,这种方法得到的结果客观准确,可操作性强。

After systematic reviewof relevant theories of risk management,the thoughts of grey system theory are introduced into the risk management of engineering project construction of oil fields. Based on the analysis of basic data of the project by FHW method,the correlation degree between risk factors and the target of project is comprehensively evaluated by applying grey correlation analysis method. According to the weights of branch rule layer and its correlation with target size,the order of schemes of all engineering projects is acquired,and the optimization of project schemes is realized. It is found that the result is objective and accurate by using the method and the method is easy to use,through case studies of 12 engineering projects from 2006 to 2014 of an oil field in China.