基于智能优化的应急疏散道路自主评价模型

SELF-DETERMINATION EVALUATION MODEL OF EMERGENCY EVACUATION ROAD BASED ON INTELLIGENT OPTIMIZATION

为了判断突发灾害下城市道路的应急疏散能力,选取速度、时间负荷裕度、空间负荷裕度、畅通可靠度、行程时间可靠度5个因素作为评价指标,建立了基于智能优化的应急疏散道路自主评价模型。首先确定评价指标的绝对优势度和相对优势度,按照诱导有序加权(IOWA)算子的思想对各路段的指标重新排序;然后利用遗传算法优化求解指标的位置加权向量和评价值向量;最后利用向量夹角和最小法求得各路段的最优评价值向量。实例分析表明,对于受多种因素综合影响的道路应急疏散能力,该方法的评价结果较其他两种方法更科学客观,可接受程度较高,可为城市应急疏散道路规划提供决策依据。

In order to determine the emergency evacuation capacity of urban roads in sudden disasters,speed,the occupancy of time and space,the reliability of travel time and the reliability of free-flowing were elected as evaluation index. The self-determination evaluation model of emergency evacuation road based on intelligent optimization was established. Firstly,the absolute dominance and relative dominance were determined and they were taken as induced component. The evaluation indexes were rearranged in accordance with the ideology of the IOWA operator. Secondly,the position weighted vector and evaluation values were solved by leapfrog algorithm. Finally,the evaluation value matrix was constituted,and the optimal evaluation vector was solved by the method of the minimum sum of the vector angle. Example showed that the evaluation results by the method in the paper were more rational and realistic than the other two methods.The method reflect the reality of the emergency evacuation capacity of urban roads affected by a variety of factors. It was highly acceptable,and provided a basis for decision making of regional emergency evacuation plan.