基于SWAT东北黑土区乌裕尔河流域径流模型模拟

SWAT Model-Based Runoff Simulation of Wuyuer River Basin in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China

黑土区是我国的粮食主产区之一,在该区研究径流特征,对东北水资源调控、侵蚀产沙治理和粮食安全,都有非常重要的意义。以乌裕尔河流域为研究对象,利用SWAT模型对乌裕尔河流域水文过程进行模拟,通过SWATCUP程序的SUFI-2算法进行模型参数敏感性和不确定性分析,结合手动参数调整,得到了较为理想的模拟结果。结果表明:年径流及月径流在校准期和验证期的相关系数R2均达到0.8,Nash Suttcliff效率系数大于0.75,相对误差小于15%。SWAT模型可较准确地模拟流域径流过程,该模型在东北地区的水文模拟具有一定的适用性。研究发现,模型对某些降雨突增月份径流模拟较差,并且对春汛和夏汛双峰型径流模拟效果也不尽人意,春季径流量模拟普遍偏低,夏季径流量普遍偏高。因此,尽管东北地区产流结构较为复杂,一些地方如模型土壤属性数据库建设、融雪过程还需要深入研究。就目前研究来看,SWAT模型对于该地区的径流模拟总体效果可以接受,这可为该地及类似地区径流乃至侵蚀产沙模拟,为水资源的开发利用与流域的综合管理提供科学依据。

The black soil region is the major grain production areas.Runoff modeling for this region is meaningful to support the studies of water resources and sediment yield.In this study,the hydrological processes at monthly and annual scales were simulated using the SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tools）model in the Wuyuer River Basin,northeast China,and some results were obtained.The monthly recorded and simulated discharges match well for calibration period and the validation period.Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients as well as correlation coefficients between recorded and simulated discharge for both calibration period and the validation period are all above 0.75 while relative errors are less than 15%.But model simulating runoff under some increasing rainfall processes is poorer,and the spring and summer flood peak runoff simulation results are also unsatisfactory.The runoff of northeast China is relatively complex,which requires to further improve the adaptability of the SWAT model,so as to provide a scientific basis for the development of water resources.