基于DPSIR概念模型的黄土丘陵区协调发展预测评估——以志丹县为例

Forecast and Evaluation of Coordinated Development of Ecology-Economy-Society System Based on DPSIR Framework in the Loess Hilly Region——Taking Zhidan County as a Case Study

基于DPSIR概念模型,以志丹县水土保持及退耕还林(草)示范区为实证研究对象,构建了驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应因果关系的生态—经济—社会系统协调发展预测评估指标体系,运用综合指数模型计算了1997—2014年志丹县的生态指数、经济指数、社会指数,在此基础上,通过灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1)分别对2015—2019年生态指数、经济指数、社会指数进行预测,并采用变异系数协调发展模型评估其协调发展状态。结果表明:志丹县在2015—2019年,生态、经济、社会指数预测值呈稳定上升趋势,按上升速率排序为:社会指数>经济指数>生态指数,三个系统间协调发展预测值均呈上升态势,发展度>协调发展度>协调度,依据预测结果,在2015—2019年期间,志丹县应在巩固现有生态修复成果的基础上,继续以社会与经济的发展为重点,加快经济结构的调整,大力发展特色产业和民营经济,并加大对科教文卫等公共事业的投入和管理力度等,从而促进生态、经济、社会系统的持续协调发展。

Based on DPSIR conceptual model,we took the demonstration area of soil conservation and ‘grain for green＇project as a study site of Zhidan County,used 5factors：the drive force,pressure,state,influence,response to construct the prediction evaluation index system of harmonious development of EES systems,and calculated the ecological index and economic index,social index during the years from 1997 to 2014as the sample data of Zhidan County,predicted index changes in three sub system in EES system 2015—2019years by using the grey system prediction model of single sequence of first-order linear dynamic model GM（1,1）,and predicted its development state using the coefficient of variation of coordinated development model.The results showed that in returning farmland to forest（grass）in the process of project implementation,the EES system of the predicted values showed the stable upward trend,the rates of rise of the sort decreased in the order：social index 〉economic development degree index 〉coordinated development degree〉ecological index 〉coordination degree.According to the forecast results,Zhidan County should consolidate the existing ecological restoration results,and continue focusing on the social and economic development,speed up the adjustment of economic structure,develop the characteristic industry and private economy,and raise the public investment and management in the science-education-culture-health utilities etc.,so as to promote the sustainable coordination development of ecological,economic and social（EES）system during the period from 2015 to 2019.