山西省粮食生产发展特征及土地资源限制性研究

Development of Grain Production and Research on Land Resources Restriction Constraints in Shanxi Province

基于山西省1949—2012年人口、耕地和粮食产量数据,以人粮关系为核心,构建土地资源限制性模型,从省、市、县三个不同尺度全面分析了山西省粮食发展特征及土地资源对人口分布的影响。结果表明:(1)县级尺度上,2003—2012年粮食盈余地区在增加,不受土地资源承载力限制的县级单元由42.1%增至65%,人口超载的地区减少,其中,超载地区大部分位于山西省晋北地区,晋南地区的土地资源限制度较小,粮食盈余地区所占比例较大,中部地区偏向于人粮平衡。(2)市级尺度上,土地资源承载力以人粮平衡和土地超载为基本特征,2012年与2003年相比全省粮食盈余市级地区增加,土地超载地区减少;(3)全省尺度上,建国初期土地承载力指数整体大于1.13,土地处于超载状态。近十年间人口分布的土地资源限制度从27.2下降到11.8,土地资源限制度降低,人粮关系好转。总体来说,2012年的土地资源限制与2003年相比有很大程度的降低,土地超载的地区减少,人粮关系趋向改善,粮食盈余地区增加。

With the growth of population,the issues of land carrying capacity and food safety have attracted worldwide attention.Based on the relationship between population and grain production and the impact of land resources on population,we established a land resources constraint model series of index system and models to evaluate the capacity of land resources restriction for human population distribution in Shanxi Province using the data of grain production and population during the period from 1949 to 2012.In addition,the spatiotemporal features patterns of land resources restriction on population distribution in Shanxi Province were assessed comprehensively in the period from 2003 to 2012at province,city prefecture and county levels with the goal of providing scientific foundation for the sustainable development of food and population.Limited degree,spatial pattern and changing pattern of land resources restriction on population pattern were also quantitatively revealed.The results showed that：（1）at the county level,the relationship between population and grain production tended to be improved from2003 to 2012,about 42.2%and 65%of the counties in Shanxi Province were unaffected by land resources restriction respectively in 2003 and 2012;（2）at the city prefecture level,the relationship between population and grain production was improved from 2003 to 2012,the land resources constraints of land resources on production distribution had significant differences on provincial scale,and were at low level in the most of cities prefectures,the restriction degree of land resources on population distribution overall showed a downward trend at the city level during the period from 2003 to 2012;（3）at provincial level,the carrying capacity of land resources has been enhanced since 1949,the limited constraints degree of land resources on population distribution in Shanxi Province declined during the period from 2003 to 2012,down to 11.8from 27.2to 11.8during the peripd from 2003 to 2012.On the whole,land resource constraints in 2012 were much smaller than those in2003 compared to a great degree of reduction,as food surplus areas increased and overloaded land areas reduced during the period from 2003 to 2012,people tended to harmony.