大兴安岭东部近30年气候变化及对玉米、大豆生长发育的影响

Influence of Climate Change on Corn and Soyben in Eastern Da Hinggan Mountains over the Last 30 Years

利用内蒙古大兴安岭东部扎兰屯市、阿荣旗及莫旗农业气象试验站近30a的玉米、大豆生长季（5—9月）气象观测资料及产量资料,运用数理统计、小波分析和积分回归等方法分析了该区域近30a气候变化特征及对玉米、大豆生长发育及产量的影响。结果表明：1984—2013年,研究区域生长季平均气温呈极显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.552℃/10a,主要周期为22～26a,经历过3次震荡,有增强趋势;生长季降水量总体呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为25.838mm/10a,主要周期为19～24a,经历过4次震荡,有增强趋势;作物生长季（5—9月）干燥指数总体呈现上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.154/10a,进入21世纪干燥指数呈明显波动上升趋势,但近期又处于低值区;气候变化对大兴安岭东部地区农作物生育期影响不大,作物播种期、收获期及各发育阶段持续天数相对稳定;温度和降水对不同农作物生长和产量的影响效应不同,对同一种作物不同阶段的生长发育影响效应亦不同。

Based on the data of meteorological observation and yields during the corn and soybean growth periods（i.e.from May to September）over the past 30 years in the county of Zhalantun,Arong,Molidawa,east of Da Hinggan Mountains,Inner Mongolia,using the mathematical statistics,wavelet analysis and integral regression methods,we analyzed the characteristics of climate change which influences on growth,development,and yields of corn and soybean.The results show that from 1984 to 2013the average temperature in growth periods significantly increased in the above mentioned regions,the climate tendency rate was0.552℃/10 years,climate experienced three oscillation per 22～26years as a main cycle,which show the enhanced trends.Accordingly,in the same time,the precipitation shows overall downward trend,the climate tendency rate is 25.838mm/10 years,four oscillations of climate form a main cycle per 19～24years,which shows increasing trends.Likewise,the aridity index shows overall rising trend,the climate tendency rate is 0.154/10 years,in the 21^ st century,the aridity index shows significantly fluctuating d increase,but presents the low value range recently,climate change has no significant influence on the crop growth and development stage in east of Da Hinggan Mountains,the sustained days of sowing,harvesting date and different developmental stages were relative stabilization.Temperature and precipitation have different influences on the growth and yield of different crops,even for growth and development of the same crop at different stages.