基于组合模型预测航道运量——以荆江航道为例

Forecasting of Navigation Channel Freight Transport Volume Based on Combination Model:In the Case of Jingjiang Waterway

基于2005-2014年三峡船闸过闸货运量与长江腹地GDP数据,分别采用弹性系数法、回归分析法和运输强度法预测2020、2025、2030、2035、2040年的荆江航道货运量,根据模型的特点确定权重进行组合预测。组合预测模型在一定程度上能够提高单项预测的准确程度,是可行的。

In this paper, based on the cargo transportation volume through the shiplock of the Three-gorges Dam and the GDP data of the Yangtze hinterland between 2005 and 2014, we respectively used the elastic coefficient method, regression analysis and transportation intensity method to forecast the freight volume of the Jingjiang Waterway at years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040, and then according to the characteristics of the above methods formulated a combination forecasting model. To some extent, the combination forecasting model can improve the accuracy of the individual methods and so is feasible.