中日货币政策“流动性陷阱”的时变弹性检验

Sino- Japan Stochastic Coefficient Model and Test for the Hypothesis of Liquidity Trap

货币政策的"流动性陷阱"是指名义利率接近零水平时所体现的货币政策弱效现象。我国经济运行过程中曾经出现多次微弱通货紧缩和名义利率较低的现象,为了判断我国经济是否陷入"流动性陷阱",我们采用具有随机系数的货币需求函数,估计了货币需求的动态弹性系数,通过与日本的"流动性陷阱"进行对比,对我国的货币政策效应进行了检验。检验结果表明,随着经济运行进入"后危机时期",我国没有出现显著的"流动性陷阱",名义利率仍然可以继续作为有效的货币政策工具。

The liquidity trap for monetary policy is the phenomenon of weak policy effectiveness when the nominal interest approaches the zero boundary. China＇s economy has appeared weak deflation and lower interest rates recently. In order to test whether China＇s economy went into the liquidity trap, we employed the money demand function with stochastic coefficients to estimate the nominal interest rate elasticity. We compared the familiar case with Japan in which country had faced the liquidity trap. The finding shows that there is no evidence that China＇s economy is in the liquidity trap. Therefore, the interest rate still is an effective tool for monetary oolicv.