不同FTA模式对中日韩汽车产业影响分析与比较——基于GTAP模型的政策模拟

The Impact of Different FTA on the Development of Automobile Industry in China,Japan and Korea:Policy Simulation Method Based on GTAP Model

本文以全球化特征显著及产业关联度较强的汽车产业为研究对象,应用全球贸易分析(GTAP)模型,考察不同FTA模式对中日韩汽车产业发展的影响效应。研究发现:日本加入中韩及东盟的FTA之后,将提高3国整体福利水平;伴随着GDP的大幅增长,日本将出现贸易收支赤字;加入中韩FTA后,日本汽车及大部分相关产业部门将会面临巨大挑战,而韩国的汽车产业将会从中获益;中国的汽车产业所面临的竞争将进一步加剧,但与之相关的行业部门可能会迎来新的发展契机,对于培育该产业国际竞争力以及产业结构优化调整具有重要的促进作用。

In this paper automobile industry with features of high - degree globalization and industrial relevancy is selected as the research object. Then we adopt the policy simulation method based on Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） Model to explore the impact of different FTA on the development of automobile industry in China, Japan and Korea. The main conclusions are listed as follows. Establisment of China - Japan - Korea FTA or China - Japan - Korea - ASEAN FTA would lead to the improvement of overall countries＇ welfare. With substantial increase in GDP, Japan＇s trade balance would be in deficit. After entering into China - Korea FTA, Japan＇s automobile and related industries would face serious challenge, while Korea＇s automobile industry would have something to gain. For China＇s automobile industry,there would be more drastic competition. However, automobile and related sectors in China would face new opportunities to cultivate international competitiveness and optimize industrial structure.