我国发展低碳经济的产业选择研究

Research on the Industrial Choice of Developing Low Carbon Economy in China

气候变暖、环境恶化和能源危机等问题使发展低碳经济更显重要,基于完全分解模型,将我国三大产业和第二产业内各细分产业2001—2014年的能源消费变化总影响因素分解为经济因素、结构因素以及技术因素,以测度各自对总影响因素的贡献。实证结果表明,第二产业无论是经济因素、结构因素还是技术因素在三大产业中都是最显著的,而第二产业内各细分产业的结构因素均要大于技术因素。最后对如何优化产业选择提出了相应的建议。

Climate warming.environmental degradation and energy crisis and other issues to develop low-carbon economy is more important, based on the complete decomposition model, will China＇s three industry and the second industry in various segments of the industry 2001-2014 years of changes in energy consumption total impact factor decomposition for economic factors, structure factors and technical factors, in order to measure each of factors influencing total contribution. The empirical results show that the second industry both economic factors and structure factors and technical factors in the three major industries are the most significant, and the second industry in various segments of the industry structure factors were greater than the technical factors. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations on how to optimize the industry selection.