面向兵棋推演的HPF行为动力学模型仿真实现与模型改进

Simulation of HPF Behavior Dynamics Model and Behavioral Model's Improvement Oriented War Gaming Scenario

在行为动力学理论的基础上,使用MATLAB对HPF模型进行了仿真实现.基于兵棋推演指挥行为实证数据,重点从时间维度层面研究了推演指令下达的阵发特征和指令下达时间间隔的幂律特征;对比兵棋推演中行为实证数据和HPF模型分析结果,对传统的基于任务的行为动力学模型提出了增加模型截止时间和兴趣因子的改进方法.此研究可以作为指挥行为数据下一步分析、建模的基础性工作.

Based on the theory of human dynamics, simulated the Highest Priority First（HPF）model with MATLAB software and obtainedthe waiting time distribution. Based on the empirical data of war gaming, focused on the intermittency characteristics of commandbehavior and power-law characteristics of the time interval, and analyzed the causes of features. According to the characteristics of wargaming, proposed an improvement method that increased deadline and interest factor for the traditional dynamic model which based onTask. This study can be a basis for next work of command behavior analysis and modeling.